Dodging a cheetah

Paul Tilstone, managing director of GBTA Europe, looks at the global economy and its ruthless impact on the success or otherwise of travel programmes.

Having examined the Elephant (distribution), the Rhinosaurus (consumer and supply changes), the lion (legislation) and the buffalo (sustainability), we come now to the fifth big business travel jungle animal we should all watch out for: the cheetah. 

As an animal which moves at speed with ruthless precision for any of its prey that falter, the cheetah represents the global economy and the legacy it leaves.

Every decade appears to offer us a period of economic uncertainty, but as our marketplace becomes ever more global the impact of any economic dips has a dynamic effect on business travel programmes. Ironically, it is travel that has brought about such a global marketplace and its link to global prosperity is key – to the point that business travel, like advertising and media, now acts as a bell-weather test for the health of the global economy.

But how did companies react to the latest set of economic issues... Did they cut back or see it as an opportunity to invest? And what was the impact on business travel, meetings and event programmes? The answer of course depends on where you are in the bigger business jungle, with some companies travelling as usual (or even more in pockets) and others downgrading travel policy, freezing or banning travel and increasing the use of alternative communication methods.

Much of these latter activities took place as immediate reactions to the dark days of 2008/9, but even as in some countries or regions we begin to emerge from economic gloom, the implications of these changes to travel programmes remain. The age of austerity is with us (for now). The company charter jet is still under threat and so is the need to travel itself!

Understanding the Return on Investment (ROI) of business travel was voted as a key focus by business travel buyers in 2011*. Meetings and events have come under government scrutiny, the public sector is now making massive cuts and this will undoubtedly affect demand for business travel services. And whilst the GBTA Index predicts just under 3% growth by the end of 2011, it also shows the market dipped by 14% against figures 3 years ago.  So we are still around 10-11% lower than the highs of 2008.

Certainly in mature business travel markets (as opposed to emerging markets in which you could argue that face-to-face is even more important) the real question is how much the changed practices have embedded in company culture, policy and procedures? And by the time we get to full recovery will the executives of tomorrow need assistance of a different kind to do their jobs?

The cheetah is an exacting hunter and it’s clear to see that once caught, the life of its prey is changed forever. Even if it escapes, and we must assume that this happens from time to time, any animal caught in the cheetah’s grasp, even if only for a moment, will never be the same. We have become more wary, more sensitive of our changed surroundings. We know that we need to be more nimble and quick-footed – in case the global economy cheetah strikes again.

Our executives need to be able to do business whatever the budget looks like and that means not only looking at alternative ways of communicating, but assessing the true impact of face-to-face and the real return of that trip. Without it we are easy prey!

An extract from “Laws of the Jungle”, a GBTA Europe presentation.

* Some 36% of Delegates of the GBTA Europe’s UK partner conference – ITM Intelligence 2011 – voted this as their biggest focus